Vol8 N04

The 3.5% “Rule” for Non-violent Protest

The contrast between the enormous, joyous and non-violent June 14 turnout to protest the Trump Administration and his own parade could not be greater.  But once is not enough!

According to Erica Chenowith and other researchers who have studied violent and non-violent protest movements over time, no government has been able to withstand a challenge from sustained, nonviolent protest when 3.5% (or more) of its population participates.  The key words are “sustained” – ongoing, regular protests – and “non-violent”.  3.5% in the US translates into 11 million participants.  June 14 brought out over 5 million.  We’re almost halfway there

While the 3.5% rule suggests a high likelihood of success, it is not an absolute guarantee. Other factors like organization, strategic leadership, and broader public support also play crucial roles.  

So here’s what’s next:  

  • Show up at as many of the national days of protest as you possibly can

  • Work hard to get everyone you know to show up as well.  One on one conversations will be the most powerful and can help people overcome whatever might be keeping them away

  • Support, with money and effort, organizations like Move On, The Women’s March, Indivisible and others that are organizing these events

  • Keep alert for the emergence of strong leadership for this work and put some resources behind them.  We’ll keep you posted about what we see happening